Performance evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs for the projections of precipitation extremes in Pakistan

Extreme weather events are more detrimental to human culture and ecosystems than typical patterns. A multimodel ensemble (MME) of the top-performing global climate models (GCMs) simulate 11 precipitation extremes was selected using a hybrid method project their changes in Pakistan. It also compared benefits all GCMs only when projecting for two future periods (2020–2059) (2060–2099) four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5. Results showed that EC-Earth3-Veg, MRI-ESM2-0 NorESM2-MM performed best among simulating historical extremes. Compared MME GCMs, uncertainty projections indices were significantly smaller. The median increased over most greater increases RX1day by 6–12 mm, RX5day 12–20 Prcptot 40–50 R95ptot 30 R99ptot 9 R4mm ≥ 4 mm 0–4 days, R10mm 2–6 R20mm 1–3 SDII 1 mm/day, CWD one day, CDD days northern high elevated areas SSP5-8.5 late future. These results emphasize influence change on northern, high-elevation areas, which provide majority country’s water. This emphasizes necessity adopt suitable mitigation strategies sustainable development, particularly country's regions.